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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/22 11:19

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Trade is higher across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 75. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are 
higher with crude up 0.45. Livestock trade is mostly higher led by cattle. 
Precious metals are higher with gold $6.20 higher.


   Corn trade is 4 cents higher at midday with trade testing nearby resistance 
with follow-through buying after the strong finish last week. Soggy conditions 
for much of the belt are viewed as friendly to the market concerns about the 
start of the growing season. Ethanol margins mixed with the energy complex 
firming along with the corn with ethanol futures slightly higher this morning. 
Basis has remained steady to firm in the recent days. The weekly crop progress 
is expected to show planting near average, with emergence remaining below 
average, with current conditions in the "I" states remaining below normal. The 
weekly export inspections were good at 1.14 million metric tons of corn which 
has added support. On the July chart support is at $3.69, the 20-day then the 
$3.61 4-month low. Resistance is at the $3.74 100-day which we are above at 
midday, then the May high at $3.79.  


   Soybean trade is 6 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to find 
light buying after the hard selloff last week tied to Brazilian issues. Meal is 
$1 to $2 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. The Brazilian currency 
trade has calmed down, and retraced much of the losses, but the wave of bushels 
dumped must be digested, with real off slightly this so far today. US basis 
should stay steady for the moment with slower movement. The weekly crop 
progress is expected to show planting near normal with emergence slightly 
behind normal. The weekly export inspections were normal seasonally at 348,535 
metric tons. Spillover support from corn and support from the wet weather is 
the main news that appears to have market bears gun-shy at midday. July beans 
have support at the longer term low of $9.40, with the weekly low of $9.42 just 
above that, with resistance at 10-day moving average of $9.64.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents higher across the three contracts with wet 
conditions raising quality concerns, along with early harvest expanding in the 
south this week and the weaker dollar. Early harvest has been lower yields and 
protein than expected so far but we still a little ways from the broader 
opening of harvest. The dollar is back to the lowest levels since the election 
with trade just below 97 on the index. Crop progress is expected to show steady 
to lower conditions, with maturity above normal, while spring wheat planting 
and emergence remains close to normal. Weekly export inspections were ok at 
674,559 metric tons. On the July KC contract support is the 10-day at $4.34 
with 50-day at 4.39 resistance, which are above at midday.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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