DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/16 11:47
Grains Trending Lower at Midday
Trade is lightly lower across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher this morning with the Dow up 45 points. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 8 higher. Energies are
higher with crude up $0.70. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals
are higher with gold up $1.00.
Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with trade working above $3.50 with
harvest expected to expand this week as things dry out. Ethanol margins are
stable with the seasonal usage expected to work lower. Weekly crop progress is
expected to show maturity and harvest lagging with export inspections
disappointing at 322,672 metric tons. Basis should see harvest pressure, while
carry remains at wide levels. On the December chart support is at the 20-day at
$3.50 with the contract low at $3.42 below that, with resistance the 50-day at
Soybean trade is 3 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from
the $10.00 area as harvest expands. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil is
narrowly mixed. South American weather forecasts remains mixed with drier
weather expected for Argentina to allow planting to progress while northern
Brazil remains excessively dry for the early part of the growing season with
the second week pattern looking to invert that. Weekly crop progress is
expected to keep progress just behind normal, and export inspections were
strong at 1.77 million metric tons. On the November chart, trade is above all
the major moving averages, with the 200-day at $9.75 first support, with
resistance the recent high at $10.03.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with trade trying to hold
onto the strong finish from last week. The dollar is treading water around 93
on the index. U.S. exports have been slowed lately as Black Sea origin continue
to dominate. Australia will see more focus coming forward as well as the
growing season progresses with some flood damage concerns in South America. The
weekly crop progress is expected to show planting progress and emergence behind
normal, with export inspections remaining soft at 322,860 metric tons. On the
December Kansas City support is the the 10-day at $4.33 with resistance at the
20-day at $4.42.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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